Executive Summary

This report examines age-standardised diagnosis rates across 14 ICD-10 chapters in Sweden for 2020–2024, using a linear 2012–19 baseline with 95% prediction intervals. The baseline period avoids 2008–2011 when specialised open care reporting was still improving, as noted in the data source’s own caveats. A linear 2010–19 baseline is shown on charts as a grey dotted sensitivity check.

The data covers in-patient and specialised open care from the Swedish Patient Register. Rates represent patients diagnosed per 100,000 — a measure of healthcare utilisation, not disease prevalence. This distinction is critical for interpreting the pandemic period.

Master Summary Table

↑ = above-baseline breach (red). ↓ = below-baseline breach (blue). Rates per 100,000. Primary baseline: Linear 2012–19.

ICD-10 Chapter Detail

Each chapter shows a detail table with actual values and percentage excess vs baseline for 2020–2024, plus a 4-panel chart. Red dots = above-PI breach. Blue dots = below-PI breach. Orange band = 95% PI. Red dashed = 2012–19 primary baseline. Grey dotted = 2010–19 sensitivity.

A00-B99 Infectious & parasitic diseases

Below-baseline breach in 0-19: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020, 2021, 2022.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
Notable decrease 2019→2024 in 0-19: -13.1%.
Notable decrease 2019→2024 in 20-64: -12.4%.

C00-D48 Neoplasms

Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 20-64. Interpret with caution.
Notable decrease 2019→2024 in 0-19: -12.3%.

D50-D89 Blood & immune disorders

→ Monthly subcategory deep dive available for ages 0–19

Above-baseline breach in 0-19: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2021, 2024.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
Notable increase 2019→2024 in 0-19: +28.8%.

E00-E90 Endocrine, nutritional & metabolic

→ Monthly subcategory deep dive available for ages 0–19

Above-baseline breach in 0-19: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 20-64, 65+, All Ages. Interpret with caution.
Notable increase 2019→2024 in 0-19: +20.4%.

F00-F99 Mental & behavioural disorders

Above-baseline breach in 65+: 2024.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
Notable increase 2019→2024 in 0-19: +25.6%.
Notable increase 2019→2024 in All Ages: +13.0%.

G00-G99 Nervous system

Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 20-64. Interpret with caution.

I00-I99 Circulatory system

Above-baseline breach in 20-64: 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 0-19. Interpret with caution.

J00-J99 Respiratory system

Above-baseline breach in 0-19: 2023, 2024.
Above-baseline breach in 20-64: 2024.
Below-baseline breach in 0-19: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2021, 2022.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 65+. Interpret with caution.
Notable decrease 2019→2024 in 65+: -10.8%.

K00-K93 Digestive system

Below-baseline breach in 0-19: 2020, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 20-64, 65+, All Ages. Interpret with caution.

L00-L99 Skin & subcutaneous tissue

Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2022.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 0-19, 20-64, 65+, All Ages. Interpret with caution.

M00-M99 Musculoskeletal & connective tissue

Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2021, 2022.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 0-19, All Ages. Interpret with caution.

N00-N99 Genitourinary system

Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
⚠️ Weak baseline fit (R² < 0.3) in: 65+. Interpret with caution.

R00-R99 Symptoms, signs & abnormal findings

Below-baseline breach in 0-19: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.
Notable increase 2019→2024 in 0-19: +15.3%.

S00-T98 Injury & poisoning

Below-baseline breach in 0-19: 2020.
Below-baseline breach in 20-64: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in 65+: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline breach in All Ages: 2020, 2021.
Below-baseline values in 2020–2021 likely reflect reduced healthcare utilisation during the pandemic rather than genuine disease decline.

Methodology

Age-standardised rates computed using European Standard Population 2013 weights applied to age-specific diagnosis rates (patients per 100,000). Age bands: 0–4 through 80–84 and 85+ (collapsed from 85–89, 90–94, 95+ with combined weight 1,700). Broad age groups: 0–19, 20–64, 65+, and All Ages.

Primary baseline: linear regression fitted to 2012–2019 (8 years). This period avoids the early years of specialised open care reporting (2008–2011) where data capture was still improving. Sensitivity check: linear 2010–2019. 95% prediction intervals use the t-distribution with leverage-adjusted standard errors.

The data measures patients diagnosed in specialised care, not disease prevalence. Below-baseline values during 2020–2021 primarily reflect reduced healthcare access and changed care-seeking behaviour during the pandemic. Above-baseline values are more likely to reflect genuine epidemiological change, though improving data capture may contribute to some rising trends.